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War Games

I had an opportunity to participate in an energy transitions wargaming session, run by my colleagues in Sustainable Finance, along with others. The simulation gave players the responsibility of running energy companies, and making choices on what resources they would invest in. Imagined exogenous events such as oil price movements, regime changes etc. were overlaid onto the game, highlighting the consequences of different decisions made over time, as measured by changes in the value of the company. There are obviously limits to where a modelled exercise can take you, but the session was undeniably thought provoking. My bet is that there are a heap of people - institutional investors, for example - who would value this approach as a way to engage with the challenge of hydrocarbon market volatility, forecast accuracy and the regulatory and economic drivers affecting the viability of coal, gas and oil as energy sources. Look forward to seeing where they take this work.


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